Over the weekend news pages were rocked with screaming headlines, going more or less like: “ISIS leader is dead!”.
The man who introduced social media to ISIS. A new way to spread propaganda and recruit new followers. Man who brought ISIS to XXI century and introduced a concept of semi-autonomous cells – driven by social media streams.
Baghdadi linked up with Sunni radicals back in US prison in Iraq. At this time first incarnation of ISIS was born. A few years later second incarnation of ISIS was born – “Califat”.
Hi is dead now. So what?
Let’s think …
Almost certainly the valuable intelligence was recovered during the US special forces raid. To illustration – the “spokesman” of ISIS was tracked down and killed soon after the raid in an airstrike.
Some say the organisation is highly bureaucratic. However, chance that his death will harm long terms goals seems low. Actually back in August Amaq news outlet has already reported that Baghdadi appointed his successor, Abdullah Qardash. Still, current analysis estimates that the number of Isis fighters and supporters dispersed across Iraq and Syria accounts to 14,000 and 30,000.
Maybe the death of Baghdadi will make the recruitment of new jihadists a little harder.
But maybe it may as well consolidate ISIS even more, as it happened with al-Qaeda after Zarqawi death in 2006.
Personally I believe that his death, especially in a view of all recent actions of the US (for eg. withdrawal from nuclear treaty), will result with an even more scary third incarnation of ISIS … coming from Iran hardliners.
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